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What does it even matter if you can’t exchange it?
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All imported goods will be more expensive. So, like, everything.
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What does Russia import, and who outside of China and maybe India is importing stuff into Russia?
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Better question is what doesn't it import.
Cars? Imported. Induatrial tools? Imported. Electronics? 100% of it is imported.
It has decent agriculture production, but all the tractors and factories for it are aging, cause maintenance got really expensive after the war because yes all that machinery was imported.
Oh and weapons. They do produce weapons.
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China and India have about a quarter of the worlds population and GDP...
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Unfortunately most western brands still find their way to the russian market.
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I had heard stories on brand sneakily dealing with Russia, so was wondering if this could be a way for the west to further destroy the Russian economy. Between Europe, Korea, and the US, if all brands caught importing into Russia from Jan 1st are banned from doing business in the west.
Alongside this, with added pressure/deal brokering with India and China, Russia could find itself with a broken economy beyond repair and few allies willing to prop it up.
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The thing is, while everything is so starkly clear for us here, it's not that black and white for other countries. So yes, India and China will become stronger business partners. And I think even if they will pressure Russia into bad deals, those deals will still be enough to keep Russia somewhat working economically. Whether this economy will be sustainable in the long run or do the country any good prosperity wise doesn't matter. The top 1% couldn't care less about how well the economy does. Do you think Putin or some oil oligarch really cares about inflation or whether millions of Russians can't afford to buy food?
The problem is that the west cannot really go without sanctions, but everyone is fully aware that the rich and powerful have no problem overgoing them. The rich guys will always have access to Gucci. They keep becoming richer. And it is very difficult to impossible to get rid of this problem. While, for them, it is a minor inconvenience, it is a major catastrophe for the broad population. I think even if we tried something like going after the brands as you described ("ban them from doing business in the west if caught dealing in Russia") they will still find a way to not get caught, blame someone else for being sold, pay a fine, continue business as usual in both hemispheres.
Having no McDonald's and a Russian rip off is not the problem here. Believe me, people whine a bit, but they are resilient to these changes. You have to be resilient in Russia because for generations, everything went further south, the more you tried the more so. No one will start a revolution because they miss McDonald's, Palmolive or Ferrero. You whine, accept, and life goes on, just a bit harder and shittier than it was before, again and again, there is no time to care more than that because you have to survive. You know you're absolutely powerless and the best you can do is focus on your little life and make it as bearable and enjoy the little things before it gets worse again.
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wait why do you care if Russians can buy Lululemon?
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I do care a lot about that. Brands claiming they are pulling out of Russia because they got the moral high ground and/or sanctions just to sneak back in because they still can make additional profit in this market. Especially luxury brands. As long as you are rich, you won't care about sanctions and risen prices. And again the poorest people who are already suffering and are completely powerless politically suffer the most, be it from inflation, drafting, or sanctions. So fuck all those brands for making sanctions even less useful than they are, for catering to the oligarchs who give a fuck about their country going to shit and people dying.
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Okay, I get the abstract, "it feels wrong" thing, but what is the strategic value?
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What do you mean? What is the strategic value of banning western luxury brands in russia, is that the question?
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If the russian people cannot buy (or it gets really expensive) butter, and the elite cannot buy Porsches, there will be (more) civil unrest.
If the russians pay more for military stuff then thats good too.
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They did manage to replace most of them with local analogues though. I wish it was the same in the Middle East, instead US and western brands are over represented. I don't necessarily want it to be imposed on us, Russia was forcefully cut off, but I would appreciate if Western brands were less dominant and I do encourage boycotting them.
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You can exchange it over the counter and it also matters in relation to other currencies.
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