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If it's a one-generation thing, you will see some (or perhaps a lot of) social upheaval and a lot of artificial insemination/stud services, leading to a relatively brief dip in the population. Seriously, look up when Earth reached 1 billion people, and we're closing in on 9 billion now. If it's every generation, humanity will go extinct. Each fertile woman would have to have over 40 children to maintain population levels.
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Humanity is already seeing the global birth rate drop to replacement rate, we're expected to hit it within the century and keep dropping. Relatively brief dip? More likely our extinction even if it was only a single generation
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There's good evidence humanity was down to the tens of thousands before, yet here we are. Source. I'm not saying we're guaranteed to get through it if it happened again, but a drop to half a billion people wouldn't even necessarily cause a significant reduction of genetic diversity.
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Fair. Less the extinction of humanity and more the end of any trace of civilisation
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If an event like this happened, we could easily maintain most of the trappings of civilization with a little effort and cooperation. So yeah, you're probably right.
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Cynicism aside, civilisation as it is today requires extremely specialised knowledge. Losing 95% or more of our population would put an end to our capability to support any kind of advanced infrastructure. It'd be akin to the decline of Rome, from the biggest city in the world to having farmers farming in the former city area and mining the old buildings for building material. Humanity would be back to scavenging and farming as core activities within a generation.
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This is kind of like saying, "What if only America existed?" There would certainly be some disruption, but it wouldn't exactly be the end of civilization. Now, randomly distribute those people across the world, and it gets harder. But. The hypothetical plague didn't kill 95% of the population, it made them infertile. That gives you decades to prepare and recover if you're aware of the problem.
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