I'll let you cope if you make a meme for me What they Wanted: Barack Obama with a lil bowtie and Joe Biden waving a Minnesota flag(new version) What they got: Hillary Clinton with a sunglasses tint effect to make her look darker and John Kerry with 3 purple hearts waving a Minnesota flag(old version)
Meme Request: What they wanted: Obama with a little pink bowtie and Biden holding waving a little Minnesota flag. What they got: Hillary Clinton with a tint filter over her and Kerry waving a little Minnesota flag
we cannot keep selling shows to Fox
I mean there wasn't enough of them to flip the swing states. Also somehow I doubt that all the RFK Jr and Chase Oliver and Randell Terry and Peter Sonski voters would have gone for Harriss
Except for McCain, Bob Dole, Bush Senior the second time around, and Barry Goldwater
I mean, no, a Landslide is historically defined as 400 EVs and that hasn't happened in a while, not even Obama quite got there.
But it is the biggest victory a Republican has had since 1988. I don't get all the hemming and hawing about mandates and plurality of PV vs majority of PV and stuff. This was a bigger win for the Republicans then 2000, 2004, and 2016. 2004 is the only one that's even debatable. Harris lost harder than any democrat since Micheal Dukakis. And while a lot of that is people who only show up for Trump and thus it's possible 2028 is a democrat wave, there's also a lot of people specifically turned off by Trump who might not mind the far younger Vance(who had the biggest glowup this year of the 4 people on the tickets, he went from bottom in popularity to comparable to Walz, meanwhile Trump and Walz stagnated and Harris surged and then un-surged)
While they benefited from it later at this point Virginia was a population powerhouse, the actual states pushing for this were the small New England states, I think some of them only gave up their giant western claims(google 'long connecticut') in exchange for it.
It was also a compromise. Proto-Federalists wanted a direct democracy determined by population, Proto-Democratic-Republicans wanted each state to get one vote. In the end they split the difference, House was determined by population, Senate by states, and the president by a hybrid system that didn't fully give either what they wanted.
If you went back in time to stop the electoral college you could just as easily get a 'One vote per state for president, 26 votes wins' system instead of a direct democracy.
64ish is literally the third highest since 1900, only behind 1960(similar range) and 2020(65ish). It was 54% in 2000. This stuff tends to eb and flow. There was a steady decline from 1960 until 2000 and it's been rising since. 1920-1960 was steady growth, 1870s to 1920s was a decline. Prior to that it was growth more or less since the start
Also voters died. Old age, COVID, random accidents
63 and a half percent. Third highest since 1900, only behind 2020(65.8%) and 1960(high 64s to low 65s depending on source). For context, 2008 was 61.6, 2016 was 59.2, and 2000 was 54.3.
The VEP is the third highest since 1900, only behind 2020 and 1960. This is an extremely high turnout election
This is literally the third highest turnout since 1900 by VEP, only behind 2020 and 1960. This is hardly a low turnout election. The last 'low turnout' election was 2000, most of the ones since have been average or slightly above.
This is literally the third highest turnout since 1900 by VEP, only behind 2020 and 1960. This is hardly a low turnout election. The last 'low turnout' election was 2000, most of the ones since have been average or slightly above.
How do you know they were Democrats and not independents?
3rd highest turnout since 1900 is a bronze metal and absolutely one for the record books.
Florida has had the fastest counting in the country for years in response to what happened in 2000
Last dump of 2% was super close. 27422 new votes for Gall, 27487 new votes for Kari. 65 vote gap. Kari is gaining, but it's by like 0.1% margins per vote dump which state wide is basically nothing.
They'll never accept the Italians/Irish, they're still blue, they're still blue!
They'll never win the Dixiecrats, they're still blue, they're still blue
The Latino Men will ALWAYS vote blue this time we swear
Swing State is 5 point margin or less. Virginia is like 5.1 right now so it's arguably stretching the definition, but still.
Also as I pointed out, that argument doesn't hold up nearly as well in New Hampshire or Minnesota. Trump basically ignored NH despite giving Virginia and New Mexico plenty of attention. NJ got more attention. Hell, NY and Cali got more attention. He visited it with Vance once at the literal last minute because of how hard the polls tightened in the last week(see 538). Not to mention the third party spread there was horrible for him, RFK Jr and Chase Oliver both there(and New Hampshire Republicans are very libertarian), and just Jill Stein on the left, no Cornel or Claudia or one of the fringe Socialists.
Take out RFK Jr, add in Claudia or Cornel, get Trump to give them the same level of attention he gave Virginia or New Mexico, maybe make a speech with those clips of Democrats calling to end New Hampshire and Iowas Primary lead spot vowing to protect their first primary role. I genuinely think it would have flipped Red in that scenario.
The other two no, but Minnesota had their Golden Boy as the VP and only held by less than 4 points. Without him? With more Trump visits? Ehhhh. New Mexico was mostly fine, I'm pretty much entirely citing 1.1% of the vote going to RFK Jr. Probably past the Swing State margin without that. Also there's a new Liberal Party there made from moderate Libertarians.
What do you think the Swing State spread will look like in 2028?
2024's spread is almost identical to 2020's. just without Florida(which was still considered a swing state then). 2016 was a broad year with something like a dozen states considered gettable, and a couple states that ended up flipping weren't even supposed to be swing states. 2012 only had a handful, I think even fewer than we have now, like 4 or 5. 2008 was another broad year.
Only way it can change is either if a swing state tilts hard enough to no longer be one(Michigan being too blue) , or a formerly safe state tilts enough to be up for grabs again(something like Virginia or Texas)
How much do you think the changing Third Party Landscape will effect this years election?
Libertarian Party has been gradually weakening and had a massive internal schism in 2022 leading to sections of the hardliners defecting to Trump and many of the moderates ending up with RFK Jr(who dropped out to endorse Trump). Nominee is a Left Libertarian and for reasons they weren't even listed as a third party candidate on most polls or polling conglomerates until September as they weren't in the Top 5 which further hurt their outreach.
Green Party has bounced back as they got Jill Stein's namecred and benefited from being above the Libertarians in the rankings thanks to RFK.
Constitution Party(hard right) has been bleeding support since the Obama era, most of them have been leaving for Tea Party Republicans and the remainder is being siphoned off by Peter Solski's Moderate Christian Party.
The PSL is the fastest growing third party right now, overtaking the Constituion Party in 2020 for 3rd place and set to potentially overtake the Greens and Libertarians if they continue infighting and bleeding support.
Cornel West exists.
If the polls are 2018 levels of accurate (within half a point) and current trends roughly hold this is more or less what the election is going to come down to. (And Nevada is completely worthless).
Across both 538, RCP, and a few other reliable polling sites as of late the general overall trend is- North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona all go red, with the former weakening the most as it got the least investment. (his checks out as the third party balance nationally has shifted to be less hostile to Republicans. Get rid of third parties completely in 2020 for both sides partitioning the voters and Trump wins Georgia and Arizona then too)
Michigan has been very strongly blue, strongest in 2020 and second strongest in 2016(Nevada is slowly trending Red so ignore that). Wisconsin was super swingy the last two elections, having extremely bad polling and being the reddest of the rust belt both times. However, Tim Walz strengthens this state more than any other while losing Biden and not picking Shapiro weakens Pennsylvania more than most, so barring another massive upset it's going to be bluer than PA, solidly blue in most polls.
Nevada and Pennsylvania are the swingy states. Nevada has a slow weak red trend, Pennsylvania has had a ton of investment and stung from the Biden dropout. Nevada might have mattered in the Nebraska Law Change scenario, but without that it's worthless. Both have had tight polling for a while, albeit Nevada has more consistently leaned blue while Pennsylvania leaned red for a bit pre-debate.
Of course the polls could be wrong again. A 2022 style error and Democrats sweep the swing states and maybe pickup a pink state. A 2020 style error and everything not Michigan falls Red. 2016 level error means Michigan and Virginia too. But I don't see it happening. They've had two national elections to correct for Trump. They've had one big election post-Dobbs and several smaller ones to correct for that error(which was smaller than the Trump errors and made in the shadow of Post-2020 poll corrections). This is the first time both those factors are going head to head nationally and the pollsters have had a chance to weigh both of them. I don't expect badly wrong polls. But just a half a point off determines the election. Being dead on correct right now favors the democrats, but it didn't the day before the debate. It could go either way.
Comparison of the 3 main polling conglomerates current election predictions (From left to right in more ways than one: Five Thirty Eight, The Hill Decision Desk HQ, and Real Clear Politics)
538 predicts a 2020 sized Harris victory, Georgia and North Carolina flip. THQ predicts a tight Harris win, mostly in the Rust Belt & maybe a NC grab? RCP predicts a tight Trump victory via Pennsylvania.
All 3 agree on Georgia going red and Michigan and Wisconsin going blue. Those states have held their colors firm for quite some time.
Where do you see the Pink and Cyan States ending up margin wise this year? The ones perpetually just outside being Swing States that everyone is constantly saying they'll get 'this time' and never do.
Whether former swing states, captured ex-solid states, or states that have always had close margins. I picked 7 for each side(I was gonna do 3, then 4, then 5, but the number on one side always felt awkward like one side had a weird outlier edge case or something. Pink has a clean base of 4 while Cyan has two main ones and then like, 5 is the next one where it all fits)
Pink States are Iowa, Ohio, and Florida(former Swing States in the 2000-2016 era), Texas, South Carolina, and Alaska (Red States weakening) and Indiana(2008 pick up that's been red before and after).
Cyan States are Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire(former swing states in the 2000-2016 era), plus Maine and Minnesota(perpetually teetering states) and New Jersey(Blue state weakening).
My current election prediction map
Every trustworthy non-partison poll in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina has gone exactly one way. The Wisconsin and Michigan red polls are either old or by very Republican sources, the Blue Georgia poll and dead even North Carolina polls were by Democratic Party sponsors Progress Action and Carolina forward.
Trump couldn't comfortably get above 'dead even' in Wisconsin and Michigan when it was still Biden and he had the shooting bump, just in very right leaning polls like Trafalgar, and now with Walz? Gone. Harris can't get ahead at the near peak of a solid blue wave in the Media outside of known biased pollsters, she isn't taking them in November barring a miracle. Georgia has been a GOP spending ground since they lost it in 2020.
This is going to come down to Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, and it's going to come down to whether or not Nebraska passes the winner take all law.
Pennsylvania is the single most important. Win it, and you win unless everything else here goes wrong(Nebraska law not in favor, lose Arizona and Nevada, lose one of the 4 probably safe-ish states mentioned above). You wanna win without PA, everything else needs to go right. If Nebraska does pass it's still the most important single state(it plus any other state is a win while Nevada + Arizona isn't) but winning without it becomes plausible albeit it would be a tie.
2024 Election if every state voted according to current polling...AND Nebraska passed it's Winner Take All law.
(That's a tie, BTW)
2014 News Article About Dead Bear in Central Park...Written By The Cousin of RFK Jr.
A necropsy found that the cub had “blunt force injuries consistent with a motor vehicle collision,” the Department of Environmental Conservation said, but little else was revealed about the mystery.
Did Josh Shapiro actually write this or did someone mix up him and Benny again? If it is his writing does this effect his chances as VP, it's spreading around the hard left subreddits quickly.
(Wouldn't be the first time someone just googled Shapiro and got Jovial Josh mixed up with Blitzkrieg Benjamin)